Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9209
(S24E21) showed gradual development with an increase in both
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. It produced a M4/2B
flare at 29/0157 UTC associated with 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II and
IV radio sweeps, and a 9-degree filament disappearance. Further
analysis is required to determine if an Earth-directed CME
accompanied this flare. Regions 9212 (N08E61) and 9214 (S11E55)
produced isolated C-class subflares. Both regions showed a slight
degree of magnetic complexity. New Regions 9215 (N20W57) and 9216
(N17W07) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9209 is expected to produce isolated M-class
flares. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this
region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity varied from unsettled to minor storm
levels. Minor storm levels were observed until 29/1200 UTC due to
sustained southward IMF Bz. Unsettled to active levels occurred
during the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the first day.
Active conditions are possible during the last two days in response
to today's M4 flare.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 187 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 190/195/200 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 017/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 026/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 012/018-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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