Viewing archive of Monday, 30 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event during the
period was a C4/1F from Region 9209 (S23E07) at 30/1350Z. Moderate
growth was observed in Region 9212 (N07E46) since yesterday. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9209 and 9212 each have the capability to
produce an isoloated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm. One period
of minor storm conditions was observed from 30/0000 - 30/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to mostly quiet to unsettled during the period. There is a
chance of active to isolated minor storm conditions during the first
day if an interplanetary shock arrives at the earth from the M4/2B
event early back on 29 October.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 194 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 198/205/205 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 024/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 015/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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