Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity continued at high levels. The period began with another X-class flare from Region 9236 (N22W20). The X1/2n flare occurred at 24/2159Z and had associated minor centimetric radio bursts and a CME. Reports of strong doppler shifts in the NE-SW filament in Region 9240 (N08E34) were soon followed by an impressive eruption at 25/0131Z. The eruption included an M8/2N, long duration ribbon flare with strong radio bursts including a 14000 sfu Tenflare. Strong Type II and IV sweeps also occurred with this flare and a CME was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 9236 flared again, producing an M3/2n flare and CME at 25/0920Z. The period ended with an X1/2b from Region 9236 with moderate to strong radio bursts and Type II sweep (910km/s). It appears that yet another Earth-directed CME was associated with this event. No significant new growth was noted in Region 9236 over the past 18 hours, but it continues to produce frequent flares in a complex, beta-gamma configuration exceeding 600 millionths of white light coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 9236 is capable of continued M and X-class events. A filament has reformed in the vicinity of the 0131Z eruption in Region 9240. If the present pattern continues, we should see another major event from this region in the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/1520Z is still in progress and is currently ranging 12 to 18 pfu. The maximum so far was 93 pfu at 24/1920Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 24/1720Z, ended at 24/1820Z with a peak flux of 1.1 pfu at 24/1810Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor to major storm levels early in day one. We observed as many as six Earth directed CME'S in the last 48 hours, so minor to major storm levels are expected through the next three days. Another proton event is possible should Regions 9236 or 9240 produce another major flare.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
Class M75%70%60%
Class X50%40%35%
Proton80%50%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Nov 202
  Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov  200/195/195
  90 Day Mean        25 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  060/070-050/060-030/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%50%
Minor storm40%40%30%
Major-severe storm40%40%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%40%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%50%30%

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