Viewing archive of Friday, 22 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9280
(N09E35) showed an increase in spot count and penumbral coverage.
This large, moderately complex region produced isolated, low-level
C-class subflares as it continued to gradually develop. No
significant changes were observed in the remaining regions. New
Region 9283 (S15E79) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9280.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to active levels during the first two
days of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects. Field
activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on the
third day as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 190 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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