Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 9283
(S14E65) produced numerous impulsive, low-level C-class subflares.
No significant changes were observed in any of the visible regions.
New Region 9284 (N05W07) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Active to minor storm levels were observed during 23/0000-0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period with active periods possible during the first day.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 191 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 017/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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