Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels, due to a
single M-class flare: an M1/Sf at 24/1115 UTC, from Region 9283
(S12E53). This region also produced several elevated C-class events
throughout the day, and exhibits notable growth in spot count, areal
coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday. Region 9280
(N09E80) remains the largest spot group on the disk, and also shows
some increase in magnetic complexity, though did not produce any
notable flare activity today. Two new regions were numbered:
9285 (N06E59) and 9286 (N30W47), with the former a source of some
subfaint C-class flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Regions 9280 and 9283 are the
most likely sources of potential M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at middle and high latitudes
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Some chance of
active levels exists for day one, due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 193 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 195/195/190 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 012/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 012/012-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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