Viewing archive of Monday, 25 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 9283 (S12E39) produced two events of equal magnitude, C5/Sf, representing the greatest activity for the period. The first was in progress at the beginning of the period, peaking at 24/2101 UTC, and the second occurred at 25/1600 UTC. Other activity included several lesser C-class flares from Region 9283, and a C2/Sf from Region 9280 (N09W04). Optical reports of filament disruptions near S36W45 and N30W60 were received (at 25/0432 and 25/1213 UTC, respectively), and while no correlated SOHO/LASCO observations are available at present, a lack of corresponding radio activity suggests no significant associated CMEs. New Region 9287 (S16E60) was numbered today. Also of note - a partial solar eclipse occurred over most of North America today, from 25/1615 to 1815 UTC, with only minor impacts on solar optical and radio observation sites.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9280 and 9283 are the most likely sources for isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Dec 187
  Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec  190/190/185
  90 Day Mean        25 Dec 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Dec  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  010/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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