Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9280 (N08E48)
produced frequent low-level C-class subflares. This region possessed
a modest degree of magnetic complexity and showed a minor increase
in spot count and penumbral coverage. The remaining regions were
stable and simply structured. New Region 9282 (N19E68) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9280.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak
interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at around 21/1100
UTC, presumably from the halo-CME observed on 18 December.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. Intermittent active periods will be possible during 23 - 24
December due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 195 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 195/195/190 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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