Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 9272 (N14W59), 9278 (N09E23), and 9279 (S13E41) each produced isolated, low-level C-class subflares. No significant changes were observed in any of the sunspot groups. Region 9280 (N08E61), which was stable during the period, may possess a moderate degree of magnetic complexity (beta-gamma structure), but analysis was difficult due to limb proximity. New Region 9281 (N07E39) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 9278 or 9280.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during the first two days of the period due to an expected CME passage. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the final day.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 201
  Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  200/195/195
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  004/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  015/020-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%25%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%01%

All times in UTC

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