Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 9272
(N14W59), 9278 (N09E23), and 9279 (S13E41) each produced isolated,
low-level C-class subflares. No significant changes were observed in
any of the sunspot groups. Region 9280 (N08E61), which was stable
during the period, may possess a moderate degree of magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma structure), but analysis was difficult due to
limb proximity. New Region 9281 (N07E39) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Regions 9278 or 9280.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during the first
two days of the period due to an expected CME passage. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on the final day.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 201 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 200/195/195 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 015/020-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
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