Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels; however, frequent C-class events occurred throughout the period. Region 9238 (S22W48) produced a long duration C5/1f flare and CME at 23/0547Z. Region 8231 (S23W62) produced several C-class flares, the largest being an impulsive C7/1n flare at 23/1424Z. A long duration C7 flare and CME in Region 8239 (S21E49) began at around 23/1930Z and remains in progress. Region 9236 (N21E06), though not as active as yesterday, retains moderate complexity and displayed increased activity late in the period. New region 9241 (N21W19) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9231 and 9236 will still be the likely source of isolated M-class activity. Activity near the east limb may also result in M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 23/03 - 06Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day two. Field activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels on day three due to the CME observed today at 23/0547Z.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 205
  Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  210/210/205
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  010/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  010/010-012/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%50%
Minor storm10%20%30%
Major-severe storm05%10%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%45%
Minor storm10%25%35%
Major-severe storm05%15%20%

All times in UTC

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