Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9236 (N20E19) became very active early in the period and has produced several c-class flares. The largest flare from this region was a C7/1n at 22/1621Z, with associated Type II sweep and moderate to strong radio bursts, including a 500sfu Tenflare. Small C-class flares were also observed in Regions 9237 (N09W73) and 9240 (N09E72). New region 9240 (N09E72) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to increase to moderate levels over the next three days. Regions 9231 (S24W50) and 9236 are complex and have good potential for an isolated M-class flare. Previous active longitudes, responsible for several impressive CME's, are rotating to view on the East limb and may well increase the chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet through 1200Z, but was mostly unsettled since then.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M50%60%60%
Class X10%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 195
  Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov  200/210/210
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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