Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9236 (N20E19) became
very active early in the period and has produced several c-class
flares. The largest flare from this region was a C7/1n at 22/1621Z,
with associated Type II sweep and moderate to strong radio bursts,
including a 500sfu Tenflare. Small C-class flares were also observed
in Regions 9237 (N09W73) and 9240 (N09E72). New region 9240
(N09E72) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to increase
to moderate levels over the next three days. Regions 9231 (S24W50)
and 9236 are complex and have good potential for an isolated M-class
flare. Previous active longitudes, responsible for several
impressive CME's, are rotating to view on the East limb and may well
increase the chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet through 1200Z, but was mostly
unsettled since then.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 195 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 200/210/210 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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