Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. There are four
spotted regions on the disk, all in the northern hemisphere. The
largest, Region 9306 (N13W64), is decaying. Several class C X-ray
events have been recorded, but optical counterparts were not
reported. A type II followed by type IV radio sweep occurred at
17/0130UTC and appear to be related to activity on the Southeast
limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The field was basically
quiet until 17/1631UTC when a sudden impulse was observed. The
field has been unsettled since that time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 152 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 155/145/140 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/010-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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