Viewing archive of Monday, 15 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Region 9306 (N12W38) produced
a short duration C9/Sf X-ray event at 15/1603Z, and a C4/Sf at
15/1847Z. Several other minor C-class events were also observed,
some optically uncorrelated. Since yesterday, a slight decrease was
noted in the number of spots in Region 9306 with no significant
change in white light area or magnetic complexity. However, minor
growth was observed in Region 9308 during the period. New Regions
9310 (N26E37), and 9311 (N04E53) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. Region 9306 continues to be capable of producing an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 169 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/008-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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