Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares produced during the past 24 hours. The first was a C2/Sf at 0012Z from Region 9218 (N21W90+), and the second was a C2 which was not reported optically. An examination of SOHO/EIT images during the second event strongly suggest that it also originated from Region 9218. Region 9221 (S12W20) showed some magnetic flux development in the leader part of the group and Region 9227 (S12E12) displayed new spot growth just behind the leader spot. All regions currently on the disk are quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind measurements from ACE indicate the onset of a high-speed, low density flow that is consistent with a favorably positioned solar coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field, however, has been either northwards or has been fluctuating weakly between -3 nT and +5 nT, and the geomagnetic response so far has been weak. The proton event at greater than 100 MeV ended at 0240Z today (based on GOES-8 flux dropping below 1 pfu). The greater than 10 MeV protons decreased during the past 24 hours but continue to be above the event threshold of 10 pfu, with a current value at 2100Z of 23.6 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active during the next 24 hours due to possible enhanced activity from the high speed solar wind stream. A decline to mostly unsettled is expected for the second and third days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime during the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton99%30%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 150
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  029/041
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  015/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

All times in UTC

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