Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 9198 (S31E54) was the most active, producing several C-class subfaint flares. Region 9194 (S12E23) exhibited some growth, but produced no flares. Two filament disappearances were reported overnight, the largest being a 7-degree filament centered on N25W31. However, available SOHO/LASCO and EIT data do not indicate any DSF-associated CME. A long duration C3 flare at 15/0836UT was reported without optical correlation, although EIT imagery suggests the likely source as newly numbered Region 9199 (old 9169), located at N12E68.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days. A chance for isolated moderate-level flare activity exists for regions 9194, 9198, and possibly 9199.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Some indications of weak high speed stream effects from a coronal hole became evident during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods, and minor storm periods at higher latitudes, are possible in association with the coronal hole effects through day one, followed by reduced activity for days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 161
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  165/175/180
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  027/042
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  007/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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