Viewing archive of Friday, 8 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class X-ray flares were observed, mostly from Region 9246 as it rotates around the west limb near S11. Very little change was noted on the existing six spotted regions. New region 9262 (N13E70) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Most activity will likely originate from Region 9246 as it rotates out of view on the SW limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The field began the period at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, but predominantly unsettled to active conditions began at 07/2300Z following the onset of a high speed coronal hole stream. Current solar wind speed from this large transequatorial coronal hole is now near 650 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly unsettled to active conditions through day one in response to the high speed coronal hole stream. Minor storming is likely at high latitudes. This disturbance should subside through day two. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions thereafter.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 138
  Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  017/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  020/025-010/015-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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