Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event was an M1/Sf at 06/2230 UTC from Region 9246 (S11W62). This region also produced two other optically correlated C-class events, and other uncorrelated C-class activity also occurred. An LDE C5 flare with an associated loop prominence was observed on the northwest limb at 07/1940 UTC. The likely source of this activity is Region 9242 (L=N20) behind the west limb. Four new regions - all in Bxo beta configuration - were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. An isolated chance for further moderate activity exists for Region 9246, and possibly for Region 9254 (N10E10).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with single periods of active levels observed at both mid and high latitudes, during 0900-1200 and 1200-1500 UTC, respectively.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled throughout the period, with a greater chance of active levels and isolated minor storming on day two, under the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
Class M25%25%20%
Class X05%05%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Dec 144
  Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        07 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Dec  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  015/015-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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