Viewing archive of Friday, 10 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C6/1f from Region 9225 (S20W48) at 09/2122Z. There appears to be some gradual flux emergence in this region. The rest of today's activity consisted of a few low-level C-class events. Two new regions were assigned today, Region 9229 (N04E70) and Region 9230 (N05W39). Both are simple and stable. There has been a noticeable decline in activity and in background levels as regions 9218, 9212, and 9213 rotate around the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9218 (N21W83) and 9227 (S13E24) appear to be the most likely sources for activity at this time.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels. The field was initially running at unsettled to active levels, but a strong interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 0604Z and was followed promptly by a sudden impulse at 0629Z (measuring 67 nT in Boulder), and a period of minor to major storm level activity (i.e. K-indices of 5 and 6). The solar wind following the shock did not exhibit strongly southward fields, and the result was a weaker disturbance than had been expected, with a decline to active to unsettled during the last nine hours of the period. This shock most likely is the result of the CME associated with the M7 flare of 8 November, and the solar wind signatures are consistent with an interpretation that the Earth received a glancing, rather than a direct blow from the interplanetary disturbance. Event level proton fluxes continued today at the greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV levels. Flux levels declined throughout the period, with current levels (as of 10/2100Z) of 192 pfu and 1.3 pfu at 10 MeV and 100 MeV respectively.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active during the next 24 hours, but there may be with periods of minor to major storm levels, particularly during local nighttime hours. Active levels are expected to continue through the second day and partway through the third day, as effects are expected from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 100 MeV proton event should end within a few hours, but the greater than 10 MeV event is likely to continue into the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 153
  Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  030/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  025/035-020/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm50%50%40%
Major-severe storm20%20%15%

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