Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. An M7 X-ray flare occurred at 08/2328 UTC. Regions 9218 (N20W72), 9213 (N04W92), and 9212 (N10W86) produced optical flares during the M7, thereby making a single-point source determination difficult. This event was accompanied by a halo CME, Type IV radio sweep, and a 710 sfu Tenflare. Optically uncorrelated M1 X-ray flares occurred at 09/0314 UTC and 09/0610 UTC. Region 9221 (S14E06) produced an M1/Sf flare at 09/1613 UTC associated with an 8-degree filament disappearance. New Region 9228 (N20E29) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares will be possible during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active conditions occurred during the 09/1500 - 1800 UTC period. Proton events at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV were associated with the M7 flare mentioned above. The greater than 100 MeV event began at 08/2355 UTC and reached a maximum of 347 pfu at 09/0350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event began at 08/2350 UTC and reached a (preliminary) peak of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600 UTC. The proton event was in progress as the period ended. A polar cap absorption event was associated with the proton event. Peak absorption was estimated to be 33 dB at 09/1640 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels during the first day. Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels during the remainder of the period due to an expected CME passage associated with the M7 event mentioned above. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end during the first day, but the greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through the period. The polar cap absortion event is expected to continue through the period as well.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
Class M50%45%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton99%99%90%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Nov 166
  Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  014/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  015/015-030/050-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%40%
Minor storm10%40%20%
Major-severe storm05%25%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%40%
Minor storm15%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%40%20%

All times in UTC

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