Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. A new region assigned today as Region 9226 (N10W94) has produced two M-class and several C-class events. The first event was an M1 at 08/0958 UTC, which was optically correlated with a CME visible in the LASCO/EIT imagery. The second event was an M2/1f at 08/1636 UTC. This region emerged late yesterday and lies in close proximity to Region 9222 (N16W77) and Region 9213 (N04W78). Another region was numbered today as Region 9227 (S13E52). An impressive full halo CME was observed on LASCO near 08/0450 UTC, but appears to have originated behind the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Activity is likely to decrease to low levels on day three as the regions on the west limb rotate around the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one and two of the forecast period. Day three is expected to be unsettled to active due to a recurrent coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M50%50%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 173
  Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  029/039
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  015/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%40%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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