Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 January 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 03/2355 UTC. Images from the SOHO spacecraft suggest that the source of this flare was from just beyond the northeast limb near NE25. Small C-class flares also occurred, including a C3/Sf at 04/2008 UTC in Region 9289 (S07W38) and a C2/Sf at 04/1914 UTC in newly numbered Region 9301 (N07E73). New Regions 9297 (N24W16), 9298 (S22W04), 9299 (N09E39), and 9300 (S14E55) were also numbered. All of the new active regions appear relatively small and simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class subflares are expected to continue and a chance of an isolated M-class flare exists. The most likely source of the M-class activity remains the active region just beyond the northeast limb. This area will probably begin rotating into view within the next 24 hours.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jan 175
  Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  175/175/175
  90 Day Mean        04 Jan 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jan  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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