Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Region 9227 (S11W02) produced today's largest event, a C4/1f flare at 1426Z. This group continues to show slow growth and is currently the largest group on the disk at 180 millionths. The other active regions on the disk were stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled to active levels prevailed for most of the period, but there was a 3 hour minor storm interval from 0300-0600Z. Solar wind observations indicate the presence of a high speed stream associated with a favorably positioned, transequatorial coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continued to show flux levels above threshold throughout the period with a very slow decline. The current greater than 10 MeV flux at 12/2100Z observed by GOES-8 was 12.4 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. A decline to mostly unsettled is expected during the second and third days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end before the end of 12 November (UTC time).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton50%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Nov 147
  Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        12 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Nov  021/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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