Viewing archive of Monday, 13 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been low during the last 24 hours. The largest flare event was a C2 at 1211Z which was not observed optically. Region 9227 (S11W14) continues to grow slowly and produced a C2/Sf flare at 1630Z. Two new regions rotated into view today: Region 9231 (S23E72) and Region 9232 (N26E76). Both appear to be moderate-sized D-type sunspot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from any of regions 9227, 9231, or 9232.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. The solar wind continues to show a high-speed solar wind stream, but the average interplanetary Bz magnetic field component has been weakly positive. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 08/2350z and reached a maximum of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600Z ended today at 13/0745Z. The flux of greater than 2 MeV electrons at GOES has been at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days and is expected to be quiet to unsettled by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Nov 144
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  020/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  010/010-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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