Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9193 (N05W86) produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 17/0204UT. Minor C-class subfaint flares also occurred in Region 9200 (S18E46). New Region 9201 (N16E69) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Just an isolated chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated in a high speed coronal hole stream, but is in slow decline. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 16/1125UT, ended at 17/0210UT. The peak of 15 pfu occurred at 16/1840UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods are possible on day two from the large CME observed early on 16 Oct.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 154
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  160/170/180
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct  174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  011/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  010/010-015/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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