Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9193 (N05W86) produced a
long-duration C3/Sf flare at 17/0204UT. Minor C-class subfaint
flares also occurred in Region 9200 (S18E46). New Region 9201
(N16E69) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Just an isolated chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated in a high speed coronal hole stream, but is in slow
decline. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
16/1125UT, ended at 17/0210UT. The peak of 15 pfu occurred at
16/1840UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods are possible
on day two from the large CME observed early on 16 Oct.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 154 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 160/170/180 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 011/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/010-015/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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