Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 20 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 9169 (N08E46) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK. OTHER THAN LOW C-CLASS EVENTS, THE REGION REMAINS QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MAJOR FLARING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM REGION 9169. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 SEP to 23 SEP
Class M70%70%70%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 SEP 211
  Predicted   21 SEP-23 SEP  215/215/220
  90 Day Mean        20 SEP 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 SEP  015/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 SEP  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 SEP-23 SEP  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 SEP to 23 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
COMMENTS: EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

All times in UTC

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