Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 September 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY LOW C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN EIGHT DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT N33E14 BETWEEN 20/1525 UTC AND 21/0706 UTC. REGION 9169 (N09E32) REMAINS A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9170 (S07E28).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED MAJOR FLARING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH REGION 9169. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 22 SEP to 24 SEP
Class M70%70%70%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 SEP 225
  Predicted   22 SEP-24 SEP  230/235/235
  90 Day Mean        21 SEP 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 SEP  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 SEP to 24 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
COMMENTS: EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

All times in UTC

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