Viewing archive of Friday, 25 August 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 9143 (S19E59) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 25/1435Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II/IV AND A 130 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ. A LARGE DENSE MASS EJECTION FOLLOWED THE EVENT AND WAS SEEN TO PROPAGATE PRIMARILY OFF THE EAST LIMB NEAR THE EQUATOR. PRIOR TO THIS EVENT, REGION 9143 WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. A LARGE FILAMENT NEAR N37W21 ERUPTED BETWEEN 25/0955-1123Z. THIS FILAMENT ELEVATED AND BECAME MORE DENSE FOR AT LEAST A DAY BEFORE THE ERUPTION. A SMALL REGION BEGAN TO EMERGE RAPIDLY NEAR N25E14 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 9144.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. OBVIOUSLY, REGION 9143 IS CAPABLE OF GENERATING M-CLASS EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF OBVIOUS GROWTH AND MAGNETIC SIMPLICITY ARGUE FOR ONLY ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THIS REGION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS STEADY NEAR 400 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE MASS EJECTION OBSERVED TODAY IS NOT PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 26 AUG to 28 AUG
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 AUG 133
  Predicted   26 AUG-28 AUG  135/137/140
  90 Day Mean        25 AUG 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 AUG  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 AUG  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 AUG-28 AUG  005/008-005/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 AUG to 28 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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