Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated long
duration C4 flare occurred at 17/2205UT. Very isolated low C-class
flares were also observed. Regions 9199 (N12E24) and 9201 (N17E57)
exhibited minor growth, but have been relatively dormant. New region
9202 (N14E26) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Mostly minor c-class flares expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons were at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated active periods are possible
tomorrow in response to the CME observed early on 16 Oct. Mostly
quiet to unsettled on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 151 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 015/015-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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