Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated long duration C4 flare occurred at 17/2205UT. Very isolated low C-class flares were also observed. Regions 9199 (N12E24) and 9201 (N17E57) exhibited minor growth, but have been relatively dormant. New region 9202 (N14E26) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Mostly minor c-class flares expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons were at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Isolated active periods are possible tomorrow in response to the CME observed early on 16 Oct. Mostly quiet to unsettled on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Oct 151
  Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        18 Oct 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  015/015-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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