Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M1
X-ray flare occurred at 14/1634 UTC. No ground-based optical reports
were received for this flare, but SOHO/EIT images indicate that this
flare originated near the northeast limb, possibly from newly
numbered Region 9233 (N13E76). Region 9231 (S24E56) increased in
spot count and area during the day. It produced occasional
subflares, the largest of which was a C7/2n at 14/0806 UTC. A Type
IV radio sweep began at 14/0831 UTC and may have been associated
with the C7/2n flare. A Type II radio sweep occurred at 14/0902 UTC.
Minor spot growth occurred in Region 9227 (S10W28).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flare activity is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decline to
normal to moderate levels during the latter half of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 149 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 155/155/160 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 010/012-008/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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