Viewing archive of Monday, 11 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low, only small C class flares were
observed. Two new regions were numbered, Region 9266 (N24W11) and
Region 9267 (N08E40). Region 9267 is growing and was the source of
at least one of the C class flares; others were not correlated to
any observed flare activity. Late on 10 December, CME's, apparently
from the area north of Region 9262 (N14E32) and along the filament
channel near N45 E40, were observed by the SOHO instruments.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
early in the period. Activity should slowly increase as old active
regions return to the East limb over the next few days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The >2MeV electrons
fluxes at geosynchronous altitudes are elevated, reaching moderate
(>10E3pfu) levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 144 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 148/150/160 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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