Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low, Region 9194 (S11W31) produced a C3/1f flare with minor centimetric radio bursts at 19/0044Z. Earlier in the period, a C1/Sf flare was observed in Region 9199 (N08E09), Several minor fluctuations occurred in this region during the period and the region remains moderately complex; however, no new growth was noted. A long-duration C1 X-ray event that occurred between 19/0634 - 0826UT was also likely from Region 9199.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Region 9199 has the best possibility for anything greater than low C-class X-ray activity. Several regions on the disk are capable of an isolated low C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with a small chance for active conditions at high latitudes. A greater chance for active periods will develop on day three as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Oct 158
  Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        19 Oct 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  010/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  012/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

All times in UTC

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