Viewing archive of Friday, 20 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9199 (N08W04) produced a couple of minor C-class events. Region 9201 showed moderate growth during the period. New Regions 9203 (N15W15), and 9204 (N09E15) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on day two and three as a coronal hole rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M25%25%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 161
  Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  165/165/175
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  008/010-015/020-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%40%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%45%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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