Viewing archive of Friday, 20 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9199 (N08W04) produced
a couple of minor C-class events. Region 9201 showed moderate
growth during the period. New Regions 9203 (N15W15), and 9204
(N09E15) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on day two and three as a coronal hole rotates into a more
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 161 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 165/165/175 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 008/010-015/020-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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