Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE ARE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK. MINOR GROWTH AND INCREASED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WERE REPORTED IN REGIONS 8747 (N12W11) AND 8749 (S18W11). ALL OTHER REGIONS APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO VERY LOW. LONGITUDES THAT WERE ACTIVE LAST MONTH WILL BE RETURNING TO THE EAST LIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY RESULT IN INCREASED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE FIELD MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF A SMALL CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 03 NOV to 05 NOV
Class M15%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 NOV 143
  Predicted   03 NOV-05 NOV  140/135/130
  90 Day Mean        02 NOV 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 NOV  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 NOV  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 NOV-05 NOV  010/009-008/015-008/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 NOV to 05 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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