Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 October 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 OCT 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E29)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
NEW SPOTS DEVELOPED IN THIS RE-EMERGING REGION. OTHER REGIONS WERE
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. DURING THE PERIOD, A MODERATELY LARGE REGION
OF ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSION BECAME VISIBLE BETWEEN NE20-30 INDICATING
THE IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SUNSPOT REGION TO THE VISIBLE DISK.
A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION CENTERED NEAR SE45 BEGAN NEAR
06/0000Z. THE PROPAGATION VELOCITY WAS VERY SLOW AND TRAJECTORY WAS
RADIAL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A LOW
LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEW REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST LIMB MAY ELEVATE ACTIVITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY BUT IT IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO ASSESS ITS POTENTIAL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DROPPED BELOW 500 KM/S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A
CORONAL HOLE RELATED HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING
THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 OCT to 09 OCT
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 OCT 134 Predicted 07 OCT-09 OCT 138/142/146 90 Day Mean 06 OCT 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT 011/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT 012/012-012/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 OCT to 09 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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