Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 October 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E29) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL NEW SPOTS DEVELOPED IN THIS RE-EMERGING REGION. OTHER REGIONS WERE PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. DURING THE PERIOD, A MODERATELY LARGE REGION OF ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSION BECAME VISIBLE BETWEEN NE20-30 INDICATING THE IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SUNSPOT REGION TO THE VISIBLE DISK. A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION CENTERED NEAR SE45 BEGAN NEAR 06/0000Z. THE PROPAGATION VELOCITY WAS VERY SLOW AND TRAJECTORY WAS RADIAL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A LOW LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEW REGION OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB MAY ELEVATE ACTIVITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY BUT IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO ASSESS ITS POTENTIAL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DROPPED BELOW 500 KM/S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A CORONAL HOLE RELATED HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 OCT to 09 OCT
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 OCT 134
  Predicted   07 OCT-09 OCT  138/142/146
  90 Day Mean        06 OCT 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT  011/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT  012/012-012/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 OCT to 09 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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