Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 October 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E43) PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 05/0551Z. THE DISK IS CHARACTERIZED BY MANY SMALL MOSTLY BIPOLAR AND MOSTLY STABLE REGIONS. ONLY REGION 8722 (N15E09) EXHIBITED MODERATE GROWTH BUT REMAINED A MINOR REGION. A SMALL H CLASS SPOT ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB NEAR S24E68 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8725.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A SMALL AND DECREASING POSSIBILITY OF A LOW LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WAS OVER 550 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BELIEVED TO BE RELATED TO AN EXTENDED CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN. DUE TO THE WIDTH OF THIS FEATURE, DISTURBED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 OCT to 08 OCT
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 OCT 146
  Predicted   06 OCT-08 OCT  148/150/154
  90 Day Mean        05 OCT 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT  009/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT  015/015-015/010-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 OCT to 08 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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