Viewing archive of Monday, 1 November 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 NOV 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C3/SF FROM REGION 8749 (S18E02) AT 01/0130UT. REGION
8749 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE. MINOR SURGE ACTIVITY IS
ACCOMPANYING REGION 8739 (S12W89) AS IT ROTATES OFF THE WEST LIMB.
ALL OTHER REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING. THE LARGE CORONAL HOLE
THAT CROSSED CM ON 11 OCT IS ROTATING BACK OVER THE EAST LIMB NEAR
THE EQUATOR.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A BRIEF
ACTIVE PERIOD WAS OBSERVED AROUND 01/1200UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE FIELD
MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON 03 AND 04 NOV AS A RESULT OF EFFECTS FROM
A SMALL CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 02 NOV to 04 NOV
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 NOV 151 Predicted 02 NOV-04 NOV 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 01 NOV 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 OCT 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 NOV 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 NOV-04 NOV 008/007-010/009-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 NOV to 04 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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