Viewing archive of Monday, 1 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C3/SF FROM REGION 8749 (S18E02) AT 01/0130UT. REGION 8749 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE. MINOR SURGE ACTIVITY IS ACCOMPANYING REGION 8739 (S12W89) AS IT ROTATES OFF THE WEST LIMB. ALL OTHER REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING. THE LARGE CORONAL HOLE THAT CROSSED CM ON 11 OCT IS ROTATING BACK OVER THE EAST LIMB NEAR THE EQUATOR.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A BRIEF ACTIVE PERIOD WAS OBSERVED AROUND 01/1200UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE FIELD MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON 03 AND 04 NOV AS A RESULT OF EFFECTS FROM A SMALL CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 02 NOV to 04 NOV
Class M20%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 NOV 151
  Predicted   02 NOV-04 NOV  145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        01 NOV 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 OCT  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 NOV  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 NOV-04 NOV  008/007-010/009-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 NOV to 04 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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