Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 October 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 OCT 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C7/1N FROM REGION 8749 (S19E26) AT 31/0702UT. THERE
ARE 11 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, AND EXCEPT FOR SOME MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY DEVELOPING IN REGION 8749, ALL APPEAR STABLE OR
DECLINING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED. THE GREATER
THAN 2MEV ELECTRONS REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE
(GOES) AROUND 31/1600UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
INCREASED LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF A CORONAL HOLE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY PASSING THE CENTRAL MERIDIAN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE.
III. Event Probabilities 01 NOV to 03 NOV
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 OCT 160 Predicted 01 NOV-03 NOV 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 31 OCT 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 OCT 004/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 OCT 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 NOV-03 NOV 008/008-008/008-010/011
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 NOV to 03 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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