Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 October 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C7/1N FROM REGION 8749 (S19E26) AT 31/0702UT. THERE ARE 11 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, AND EXCEPT FOR SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY DEVELOPING IN REGION 8749, ALL APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2MEV ELECTRONS REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE (GOES) AROUND 31/1600UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INCREASED LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF A CORONAL HOLE WHICH IS CURRENTLY PASSING THE CENTRAL MERIDIAN IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.
III. Event Probabilities 01 NOV to 03 NOV
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 OCT 160
  Predicted   01 NOV-03 NOV  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        31 OCT 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 OCT  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 OCT  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 NOV-03 NOV  008/008-008/008-010/011
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 NOV to 03 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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