Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 October 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 OCT 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW WEAK C-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED, THE LARGEST BEING A C1. REGION 8751 (N20E66) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF SUNSPOT GROUPS IS HIGH, NONE OF THEM
ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR ACTIVITY. REGION 8739 (S10W64)
REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX GROUP, BUT IS STILL UNDERGOING
A SLOW DECAY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SINCE YESTERDAY
BZ MAGNITUDE HAS DECREASED AND IS NOW FLUCTUATING AROUND ZERO; THIS
HAS RESULTED IN LOWER MAGNETIC ACTIVITY THAN SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED HIGH LEVELS FROM APPROXIMATELY 1330-1600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 31 OCT to 02 NOV
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 OCT 169 Predicted 31 OCT-02 NOV 165/160/150 90 Day Mean 30 OCT 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 OCT 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 OCT 008/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 OCT-02 NOV 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 OCT to 02 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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