Viewing archive of Friday, 26 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8771 (S14W63) PRODUCED AN M6/2N FLARE AT 26/1343Z. THIS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR AN M5/3B TENFLARE AT 26/0123Z AND AN M1/2B FLARE AT 26/0400Z. THOUGH THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS OF DECAY, THE DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINS INTACT. A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED MOSTLY OFF THE WEST LIMB AT 26/0754Z. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE SOURCE FOR THE CME, BUT A C3/SF WITH A TYPE II SWEEP WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8778 (S14W05) AT 26/0705Z. THIS REGION DID EXHIBIT SOME GROWTH THIS PERIOD AND REMAINS A MODERATELY COMPLEX E-TYPE SPOT GROUP. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. EXPECT MORE M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8771 WITH A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8778 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR DAY ONE AND TWO. EFFECTS FROM TODAY'S CME MAY PRODUCE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
Class M60%55%45%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 NOV 172
  Predicted   27 NOV-29 NOV  170/165/155
  90 Day Mean        26 NOV 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 NOV  017/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV  007/008-007/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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