Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE WITH THREE M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OBSERVED THIS PERIOD. REGION 8778 (S14E10) PRODUCED A VERY IMPULSIVE M2/1B FLARE AT 24/2156Z. THIS REGION, THOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL WITH NO OBVIOUS GROWTH, CONTAINS SOME MIXED POLARITY AND CONTINUED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE M2 FLARE. REGION 8771 (S15W51) PRODUCED AN M3 FLARE AT 24/2337Z WITH A TYPE II SWEEP AND MINOR DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. ACTIVITY INCREASED IN THIS REGION AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A SERIES OF C-CLASS EVENTS CULMINATED WITH A M2/2N FLARE AT 25/1919Z. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED IN SIZE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST TWO TO THREE DAYS AND NOW MEASURES NEAR 820 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA WITH A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OR ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8771 WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8778.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH AN ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING PERIOD BETWEEN 25/09-12Z. ACE RTSW DATA INDICATED A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD IN BZ AT AROUND 25/0900Z, BUT THIS LASTED LESS THAN TWO HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO NORTHWARD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH THE MOST DISTURBED CONDITIONS OCCURRING DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 26 NOV to 28 NOV
Class M60%55%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 NOV 184
  Predicted   26 NOV-28 NOV  180/175/165
  90 Day Mean        25 NOV 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 NOV  014/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 NOV  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 NOV-28 NOV  012/012-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 NOV to 28 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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