Viewing archive of Friday, 29 October 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A NUMBER OF WEAK C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES. THE MAJORITY OF THESE FLARES CAME FROM REGIONS 8739 (S11W50) AND 8747 (N11E44). REGIONS 8748 (N19E04), 8749 (S21W49), AND 8750 (S18E10) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M FLARE FROM REGION 8739 REMAINS, BUT ITS DECAY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS APPARENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. PROLONGED PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ LED TO THESE UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. IT NOW APPEARS THAT WE WILL NOT SEE THE EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN.
III. Event Probabilities 30 OCT to 01 NOV
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 OCT 180
  Predicted   30 OCT-01 NOV  180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        29 OCT 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 OCT  009/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 OCT  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 OCT-01 NOV  012/015-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 OCT to 01 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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