Viewing archive of Friday, 29 October 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 OCT 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE PERIOD WAS CHARACTERIZED
BY A NUMBER OF WEAK C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES. THE MAJORITY OF THESE
FLARES CAME FROM REGIONS 8739 (S11W50) AND 8747 (N11E44). REGIONS
8748 (N19E04), 8749 (S21W49), AND 8750 (S18E10) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M FLARE FROM REGION 8739
REMAINS, BUT ITS DECAY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS APPARENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. PROLONGED
PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ LED TO THESE UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. IT NOW APPEARS THAT WE
WILL NOT SEE THE EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN.
III. Event Probabilities 30 OCT to 01 NOV
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 OCT 180 Predicted 30 OCT-01 NOV 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 29 OCT 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 OCT 009/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 OCT 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 OCT-01 NOV 012/015-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 OCT to 01 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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