Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 October 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 OCT 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE THREE SMALL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8727 (N18E53) WAS NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE THIRD DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN
RESPONSE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Event Probabilities 08 OCT to 10 OCT
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 OCT 129 Predicted 08 OCT-10 OCT 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 07 OCT 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 OCT 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT 010/010-015/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 OCT to 10 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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