Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY MINOR X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. TWO SMALL SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8752 (S12E01) AND 8753 (N21 E63). EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN REGION 8749 (S18W26) ALL REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING. THE LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE WHICH CROSSED CM ON 11 OCT HAS FULLY ROTATED ON TO THE DISK AND IN SOME WAVELENGTHS APPEARS TO EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL MERIDIAN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO VERY LOW. THE ACTIVE LONGITUDES OF THE LAST SOLAR ROTATION WILL ROTATE INTO VIEW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO EVIDENCE OF ANY STRONG ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE NOW APPROACHING CM.
III. Event Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
Class M10%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 NOV 143
  Predicted   04 NOV-06 NOV  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        03 NOV 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV  005/007-005/007-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm10%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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