Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 November 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 NOV 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. THERE HAVE
BEEN ONLY MINOR X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. TWO SMALL
SPOT GROUPS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8752 (S12E01) AND 8753 (N21 E63).
EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN REGION 8749 (S18W26)
ALL REGIONS ARE STABLE OR DECLINING. THE LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL
HOLE WHICH CROSSED CM ON 11 OCT HAS FULLY ROTATED ON TO THE DISK AND
IN SOME WAVELENGTHS APPEARS TO EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL MERIDIAN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW. THE ACTIVE LONGITUDES OF THE LAST SOLAR ROTATION WILL
ROTATE INTO VIEW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER, THERE IS CURRENTLY
NO EVIDENCE OF ANY STRONG ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A CONSEQUENCE OF
THE LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE NOW APPROACHING CM.
III. Event Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 NOV 143 Predicted 04 NOV-06 NOV 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 03 NOV 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV 006/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV 005/007-005/007-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 NOV to 06 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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