Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 November 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 NOV 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8749
(S18W39) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE
LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C8/1F AT 03/2249Z. THIS REGION SHOWED NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD AND RETAINED A MIXED-POLARITY
STRUCTURE. REGION 8747 (N11W38) DISPLAYED MINOR MIXED POLARITIES,
BUT WAS STABLE. A BROAD BAND OF INTENSE CA XV EMISSION WAS VISIBLE
ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB. IT LIKELY HERALDS THE RETURN OF A BAND OF
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES (ROUGHLY L = 320 TO 280). NEW REGION
8754 (S09E66) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY LOW. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE RETURN OF PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Event Probabilities 05 NOV to 07 NOV
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 NOV 148 Predicted 05 NOV-07 NOV 150/155/165 90 Day Mean 04 NOV 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 005/007-010/007-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 NOV to 07 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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