Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES
OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY, ALL OF WHICH WERE IN REGION 8782 (N09W53).
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW BUT IS NOT YET DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 8785 (N14E71) ROTATED INTO VIEW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
SMALL FLARES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN REGION 8782.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE BY THE THIRD DAY DUE TO A RETURNING CORONAL
HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 02 DEC to 04 DEC
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 DEC 165 Predicted 02 DEC-04 DEC 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 01 DEC 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 NOV 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 DEC 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 DEC-04 DEC 005/005-005/005-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 DEC to 04 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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