Viewing archive of Monday, 29 November 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1/SF FLARE OCCURRED IN REGION 8773 (S11W85) AT 29/1414UT. THIS IS A SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP JUST TO THE EAST OF MAJOR FLARE PRODUCER 8771 (S15, LO=167) WHICH HAS ROTATED BEYOND THE WEST SOLAR LIMB. A NUMBER OF SMALLER FLARES OCCURRED FROM A VARIETY OF REGIONS, INCLUDING A C6/SF AT 29/0438UT IN DECAYING REGION 8778 (S14W47). REGIONS 8781 (S13E09) AND 8782 (N10W27) ARE GROWING AND ALSO PRODUCED SUBFLARE ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8773, 8778, 8781, AND 8782. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LESS LIKELY BUT ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 8773 OR 8778.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
Class M50%40%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 NOV 164
  Predicted   30 NOV-02 DEC  160/150/145
  90 Day Mean        29 NOV 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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