Viewing archive of Friday, 3 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES
OCCURRED. REGION 8091 (N25E47) HAS GROWN IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY
SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS CURRENTLY 7-8 SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP. REGION
8090 (S27E28) REMAINS STABLE AS A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
ACTIVITY INCREASING TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 04 OCT to 06 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 OCT 086 Predicted 04 OCT-06 OCT 086/086/087 90 Day Mean 03 OCT 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 OCT 006/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 OCT 007/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 OCT-06 OCT 005/008-010/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 OCT to 06 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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