Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8090 (S27E41), A ONE SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA, GENERATED A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 02/0245Z. THE ONLY OTHER ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, REGION 8091 (N25E60), A SEVEN SPOT 'CRO' BETA, HAS REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE WHICH ENDED AT APPROXIMATELY 01/1800Z. YESTERDAY'S EVENT REACHED MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND SEVERE STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES, WITH CONSECUTIVE K VALUES OF 7 AND 8 RECORDED AT COLLEGE, ALASKA. DURING THE INTERVAL 01/0900-1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 03 OCT to 05 OCT
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 OCT 086
  Predicted   03 OCT-05 OCT  088/088/090
  90 Day Mean        02 OCT 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT  032/041
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT  005/005-005/005-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 OCT to 05 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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