Viewing archive of Friday, 5 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A C1/SF FLARE FROM REGION
8076 (N26W83) AT 05/1330Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8083 (S27E29) CONTINUED TO EMERGE
AND PRODUCED A FEW FLUCTUATIONS. OLD REGION 8082 (N21E23) HAD
DECAYED TO ALMOST A SPOTLESS PLAGE BUT DURING THE PERIOD EXHIBITED
MODERATE GROWTH. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL B-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8076 WILL BECOME LESS OF A
THREAT AFTER ITS LIMB TRANSIT BUT GROWING REGIONS 8082 AND 8083
SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES IMMINENTLY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE OF
03-04 SEP HAS PASSED. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A NOMINAL FLOW.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 SEP to 08 SEP
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 SEP 096 Predicted 06 SEP-08 SEP 095/090/087 90 Day Mean 05 SEP 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP 018/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP 005/010-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 SEP to 08 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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