Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES
OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LARGEST WAS A C1 WHICH REACHED A
MAXIMUM AT 06/2052Z. THE TRAILING PORTION OF REGION 8076 (N25W91) IS
NEARLY AROUND THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8082 (N21E09) AND 8083 (S27E15)
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN SUNSPOT STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH THEIR OVERALL
MAGNETIC FIELD CONFIGURATION REMAINS SIMPLE. NEW SUNSPOT GROUP 8085
(S24 E75) IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW WITH B AND C CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8076,
8082, 8083, AND 8085. AN ISOLATED M CLASS FLARE IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE
FROM THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS BARELY MODERATE AFTER ABOUT 06/1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 07 SEP to 09 SEP
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 SEP 098 Predicted 07 SEP-09 SEP 090/088/085 90 Day Mean 06 SEP 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 SEP 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 SEP 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 SEP-09 SEP 010/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 SEP to 09 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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